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EMP HAUNTS INDIA & TIGHT LIQUIDITY IN STOCK MARKET
       
After india’s massive Q 3 FY 2013 current account deficit (CAD) of 6.7 per cent of GDP, stock markets have rightly focused on the rupee as only left hope of reviving element.  Although CAD is expected to improve in the final quarter of FY 2013, partly due to seasonal effects, it is expected to re-widen through the remainder of the year.  The nifty happens to be range bound and technical analysis thus has become tough task without a perfect intraday trading software.  The best trading software only help to come out of choppy intraday trade in the stock market where nifty sees volatility of 100 points.  With the abundant DM liquidity and reduced tail risk, inflows have been sufficient to finance the CAD thus far, but we decided to take a look at exchange market pressure (EMP) to see rupee might be heading for another significant depreciation episode.  The online intraday software tracks this kind of development.  It has far reaching impact on commodity market too with commodity tips being clueless of next move.
        The RBI is also unlikely to intervene in the given situation for two reasons.  One, we currently expect short run depreciation pressures to abate and ultimately forecast INR/USD to end the year around 54.  Second, RBI doesn’t have sufficient resources to alter exchange rate fundamentals.  Stock market in general and nifty in particular, however expects RBI to intervene to give a direction to the market.  The trading strategy shall be also based on those factors.  The stock market now expects modest short run depreciation pressures and tight liquidity soon to be fade over.  Moreover, political instability / policy paralysis which could undermine foreign investors’ confidence in India’s reform momentum and the government’s capacity to address structural impediments to growth.

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