Intraday Trading Systems and Intraday Trading System for Nifty Stocks and Commodities

CURRENTACOUNT DEFICIT & INDIAN STOCK MARKET

Last week the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released quarterly BOP data which showed India’s current account deficit reached below a new high of 32 billion USD or 6.7 per cent of GDP in Q3 FY 2012. CAD, however is expected to narrow down as a result of slowing consumption, sluggish investment, fiscal consolidating, and moderating oil prices and gold imports, we project the full year figure will come in around 5 per cent—well above the RBI’s estimate of a sustainable level of about 2.5-3 per cent. The stockmarket will then see a new kind rejuvenation and traders in nifty might look forward to encash the profit. Given that it will likely remain around 4-5 per cent of GDP over the medium-term, the CAD will limit the RBI’s space for rate cuts, keep downward pressure on INR, and increase india’s reliance on potentially volatile portifolio flows.

While a surge in capital inflows due to DM liquidity and government reform efforts was sufficient to finance the CAD in Q3, while the quality as per expert in technical analysis, the quality of financing remains a concern. The net FDI declined to 2.5 from 5 billion, in Q3, while portfolio inflows rose to 8.6 compared to 1.8 billion over the same period a year ago. This causes the sharp volatility in the stock market and intraday traders change their trading strategy based on the news upon it.

More importantly, there has been notable deterioration in India’s external debt, through the situation appears manageable. Total external debt rose to 378 billion from 260 billion in 2009 - 10. The size of India’s external debt is not a problem itself, at 18.3 per cent of GDP it is the 3^rd lowest amongst developing countries while its FX reserves cover 81 per cent of total debt.

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