Policy paralysis seems to be eating away the growth
cycle recently picked up due to the sincere
efforts on the part of the govt coupled with well timed action by RBI
which deemed fit to slash repo and CRR.
The depth in the market is deepening with every trading session. Premiums in both NIFTY FUTURE and
NIFTY OPTION are fast disappearing with discounts sneaking into it
vigorously. The NIFTY sunk below
5600 for the first time since November 23, 2012. That was the first time that the Nifty
actually flirted with the 200 day moving average (DMA). Now it’s a big question that “is the NIFTY
and midcap index which has outsmarted NIFTY in falling fast, replicating
the trading pattern similar to 2008.
THE 200 DMA—KEY SUPPORT
If one peeps into the recent past, one can get to know
that the Nifty has not gone below 200 DMA on a closing basis. In 2008, also the similar trend where midcaps
started to underperform exhibited. Some
of the midcaps started to fall 30-40 per cent and then the Nifty just somehow
managed to hold on to the 200 DMA.
After
three or four times it ultimately broke the 200 DMA and it did that by about 50
or 100 points and after that there was no looking back. For the complete year, Nifty traded below the
200 DMA and in fact went as low as 2500 points below the 200 DMA. Even chart analysis or technical
analysis could not take clue of next trading sessions. The intraday tips were hovering in
dark. It all had its epicentre in USA
where the recession of 2008 had originated.
It largely impacted the FII flow in the Indian stock market as a
whole. Shorting the NIFTY FUTURE
or buying puts of NIFTY OPTION have become the current trend and will
continue till something strong comes up.
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