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STOCK MARKET AND OUTLOOK OF INDIAN ECONOMY—APRIL 2013  ONWARDS
It is expected that growth will gradually rebound from current lows with a revival of investment, but further fiscal consolidation and structural reforms will be key to returning India to a potential growth rate of above 6 %.  That is what the stock market is expecting after a due consolidation in the range of 17500-19000.  The recent budget provides a path toward fiscal consolidation , albeit one fraught with political and implementation risks.  The RBI is further expected to use the limited space provided by moderating inflation to cut rates gradually, while remaining wary of the current account deficit (CAD).
  Since these a few odds, FII had started to be one of the favourite destination for long term investment in the equity market against India, delivering over 15 % capital gains so far as the current reports reflect on global economy.  FII still favour India and anticipate further headwinds to India’s reform process.  Global investment tendering towards China was another woes, Indian stock market overcame consequent upon long and tedious economic reforms and removing of subsidy caps.
SOME POSITIVES FOR INDIAN STOCK MARKET
The government continues to deliver a steady stream of reform announcements and is able to stick to the fiscal consolidation road  map, thus boosting / sustaining improving sentiments. As a result of it, not only equity market but also the commodity market has shown good recovery and consolidation during the last few months which had been rarely seen in the investment history for years.  Both Intraday traders as well as investors see it a great positive sign for vibrant stock market.
Moreover, global growth improves gradually, boosting exports, while fiscal consolidation and higher savings lower imports, thus narrowing CAD.  These analysis can be further corroborated by the NIFTY CHART.  The two show good reunion expecting better environment for investment.
And the third thing, Bank credit and deposit growth pick up rapidly, restarting the investment cycle.  The banks in given time will explore the potential of these well developed circumstances. 
NEGATIVES FOR THE STOCK MARKET
Political fragmentation and pre-election jockeying lead to worse than expected policy.  It has attempted to dampen the spirit which had just developed or better to say started to be developed.  Policy paralysis and populism, jeopardizing fiscal consolidation fuelling inflation and worsening the CAD.  That has started to downplay the growth pattern.  However, these woes will get away soon as the political uncertainty has started to be settled down and the ruling UPA has convinced all its allies at least for next few months.  Rather up to  the next election which is expected next year.
Another big worry is food prices spike on a weak monsoon and / or global oil prices spike, fuelling elevated inflation and / or worsening the CAD, making rate cuts difficult and dragging on growth.
The govt appears to be decided to suitably answer these worries with firm believe.  And hope so, if programmes well implement, a good bull run can easily be seen on DALAL STREET.
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