CURRENTACOUNT DEFICIT & INDIAN STOCK MARKET Last week the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released quarterly BOP data which showed India’s current account deficit reached below a new high of 32 billion USD or 6.7 per cent of GDP in Q3 FY 2012. CAD, however is expected to narrow down as a result of slowing consumption, sluggish investment, fiscal consolidating, and moderating oil prices and gold imports, we project the full year figure will come in around 5 per cent—well above the RBI’s estimate of a sustainable level of about 2.5-3 per cent. The stockmarket will then see a new kind rejuvenation and traders in nifty might look forward to encash the profit. Given that it will likely remain around 4-5 per cent of GDP over the medium-term, the CAD will limit the RBI’s space for rate cuts, keep downward pressure on INR, and increase india’s reliance on potentially volatile portifolio flow...
While the Indian stockmarkets were not generous to investors (declined week-on-week), the rain gods gave a handful to Mumbai and as usual, the city choked during the last week! This did have an impact on the daily volumes traded, which was low in the first three days, only to gain momentum in the later half. Despite a weak start, there was selective buying interest in some sectors. But sentiment was dampened following the Prime Minister's decision to keep disinvestments of public sector units on hold (read Neyveli Lignite Corporation). This time, it was not only the 'Left' that was 'as usual' against the move, but also an important ally from Tamil Nadu (DMK). Incidentally, DMK was a strong supporter of disinvestments of PSUs under the erstwhile NDA government. Besides these domestic concerns, global factors such as North Korea testing missiles and renewed worries about interest rates increasing in Japan added to the nervousness. In this backdrop, it was a tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears with bears winning the battle towards the end of the week.
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